Why NASA keeps revising the odds of a 2032 asteroid impact on Earth
Scientists keep calculating the real impact asteroid YR4 can have on Earth in 2032.
NASA's ongoing revisions of asteroid 2024 YR4's potential impact on the Earth in the year 2032 have led to fluctuating probability estimates. Initially, the asteroid's impact probability was calculated at 1%. However, subsequent information redefined this number. NASA researchers have until April to study the potential collision before the asteroid disappears by 2028.
Last week, media reported that the risk of the asteroid's impact on Earth raised to 3.1% by 2032, according to the latest data from the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). This drew a comparison with a previous asteroid called Apofis back in 2004. Nonetheless, the latest NASA analysis of the asteroid impact indicates a 0.28% chance of collision on December 22, 2032.
Why NASA keeps updating the probability of impact
As mentioned before, NASA scientists are still currently evaluating the asteroid's impact on Earth. Even though the new data showed a decreased risk on Earth, the chance of an impact with the Moon increased slightly to 1%. The nature of these stems is dynamic, due to the continuous collection of observational data.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 measures between 130 and 300 feet in diameter. It was first detected by the ATLAS system in Chile, on December 27, 2024. Early calculations were based on limited data, which is why astronomers gather more information each time to refine their models. The new data about the asteroid's trajectory, size, and speed result in updated impact probabilities.
Asteroid YR4 collision on Earth in 2032
Despite the current low probability of impact, an asteroid of 2024 YR4's size could cause significant localized damage if it were to collide with Earth. Therefore, NASA and other space agencies continue to monitor such near-Earth objects diligently.
As impact probabilities become more refined, NASA aids in preparing potential deflection missions, as well as informing emergency response strategies. Scientists expect to further reduce the uncertainty, which will provide a clearer picture of any potential threat posed by asteroid 2024 YR4. Lastly, the European Space Agency (ESA) has estimated that the probability of impact is likely to fall to zero.