Tropical storm Alvin expected to form in the Eastern Pacific, according to National Hurricane Center
First tropical storm of 2025, likely Alvin, to form off Mexico’s southwest coast this week as hurricane season starts.
The 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season has just begun, and the first tropical storm of the year could develop later this week off the southwestern coast of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring a disturbance that is south of Acapulco, Mexico, which may soon develop into Tropical Storm Alvin.
The disturbance is located several hundred miles offshore and is moving rather slowly west-northwest. Forecast models suggest that it will continue for a while in that direction before it makes the turn north and runs into less favorable conditions. The disturbance could weaken or dissipate offshore, but it may still bring heavy rain, high surf and rip currents to parts of Mexico’s Pacific coast later this week.
Is tropical storm Alvin a threat?
The location of this system is several hundred miles south of Mexico's Pacific coast, and it is moving slowly in a west-northwest direction. The vast majority of forecast models agree that this system will likely continue in this direction for a day or two before turning north.
Following that, it is likely to move into a less favorable environment characterized by increased wind shear, colder waters, and drier air. There is some uncertainty whether the storm will dissipate while offshore or weaken and move northeast toward the Mexican coast late Saturday.
In any event, high surf and dangerous rip currents are expected along USGS designated to risk perilous portions of Mexico's Pacific coast west of Acapulco later this week. There also may be bands of heavy rain, which could produce flash flooding and mudslides near coastal locations north and east of the track of the storm.
Moisture from the remnants of Alvin, combined with an upper-level low, could also trigger increased thunderstorm activity across the U.S. Southwest this weekend.
Possible area of tropical development according to the latest National Hurricane Center. Photo: Weather Channel/NHC
Eastern Pacific tropical storm has begun
According to Weather.com, as senior meteorologist Chris Dolce wrote, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially begins on May 15, two weeks earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season.
It is important to understand that while most storms in the Eastern Pacific move west-northwest and dissipate while at sea, some of them do impact land. Like we saw in 2023 with the remnants of Hurricane Hilary in the Desert Southwest and Category 5 Hurricane Otis impacting Acapulco, Mexico.
