Get ready for Summer: Here’s the early weather forecast for the United States
A late spring cold wave breaking temperature records in northern U.S. states does not signal a cooler summer, as warmer-than-average conditions are expected across much of the country this season.
A recent cold spell broke temperature records in states to the north of Minnesota; but it doesn't mean it will be a cooler than average summer in the United States. Meteorologists are predicting warmer than average temperatures for much of the country, with June being the official start of meteorological summer.
According to the NOAA seasonal outlooks, most regions, but particularly the West, Northeast, and South, are projected to remain above normal. On the East Coast, increased humidity and tropical storms may contribute to a particularly sweltering summer. Drought conditions meanwhile may worsen in the West.
What to know about the Summer forecast
Seasonal outlooks may not deliver the precision of a weather forecast, but they allow us to outline overall trends and indicate whether the system is likely to be warmer than normal, cooler than normal, wetter than normal, or drier than normal.
Climate models generally deliver a probable seasonal outlook that are based on current global climate parameters like El Niño and La Niña. Many of the models are developed by several meteorological services worldwide.
Think of them as being similar to being told what the theme of a dress-up party is: you have a general idea of what to expect, but not how each attendee will show up or when.
Temperatures: Heat expected
Weather forecasts project a tropical feel for the season.
Many areas of the U.S. can expect above-average to well-above-average temperatures. The chances of a warming summer trend — particularly in the western U.S. — is increased in the event of drought that could intensify heatwaves in the summer months.
Still, there are predictions for above-average temperatures on the East Coast, too, which includes Washington, D.C. For the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, it is worth noting that four of the past five summers saw widespread above-average temperatures.
Humidity: Sweltering condition in the East
During a typical summer, southern winds bring air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea to the East Coast, resulting in abundant humidity.
This summer, the level of discomfort—and air conditioner use—may increase even further.
This is because a recent heat dome raised sea temperatures in the western Atlantic, leading to higher humidity and moisture content in the air.
Historical data shows humidity is rising throughout the U.S., and this summer is expected to follow that trend.
Precipitation: More rain in the East, more drought in the West
Thanks to recent wet weather, most of the east will NOT start summer in drought conditions, which is great news.
These areas will likely have wetter-than-normal conditions for the same reasons we think higher humidity will be around, and because of the potential for tropical moisture to travel in on southern winds and potentially drench a few southern and eastern states now and then.
Unusually warm sea temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic could increase the risk for tropical systems developing or intensifying near the coast.
This does NOT mean that the season will not have sunny beach days, just that there may be more surprise showers or changes of plans.
In the West, due to persisting drought conditions, wildfire season is expected to begin early, and these conditions are expected to remain for several months.
