U.S.–Iran nuclear tensions: Trump to pull personnel from Middle East amid conflict risk
Trump, Iran, and IAEA clash over 60% uranium enrichment; U.S. evacuates staff from key Mideast posts.
President Donald Trump has committed to removing U.S. military and diplomatic staff from Baghdad, Kuwait, and Bahrain because of a heightening threat in the region. The order adheres closely to the president's more hostile rhetoric on Iran's role regarding existing nuclear talk, which he has said are ongoing but that, now, will have a clearer duration due to Tehran. Trump stated that the U.S. and/or Israel could strike Iran's nuclear sites if Iran delays negotiations.
Additionally, Iran's defense minister warned that if there is a military action, there will be retaliation in the region, saying that all U.S. bases that are nearby are in range, and therefore would be targeted should war break out.
Uranium enrichment blocks progress
Even though both governments claim to be seeking a deal, they remain stuck because they cannot agree on whether Iran can enrich uranium. Trump has now raised the bar saying he wants Iran to suspend all enrichment, while Tehran claims it is entitled to enrich uranium under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The IAEA reported Iran has enriched uranium to 60%-- far above the UCPOA limit of 3.67% and closer to weapons-grade material. This led the IAEA Board of Governors to request for the first time in almost two decades that Iran address its non-compliance with its safeguards agreement.
Military risk grows amid pressure tactics
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu purportedly is seeking Trump to endorse military action; Trump has reportedly urged caution in talks about military action. Analysts believe the troop withdrawals refer more to strategic pressure than a run-up to war.
Things like a regional enrichment consortium have been floated but analysts say they are all lacking clear commitments, especially on sanctions relief which is Tehran's most important demand. While Iran warns it would strike U.S. assets if attacked, experts observe that if any following party miscalculates, it could lead to a large-scale conflict.
